Page 17 - ATC Special Bulletin Series - Meteorology 2022-01

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difficulty, and its analysis requires a probabilistic approach,” explains Alfonso Valenzuela, one of the principal researchers in the SESAR project, FMP-MET.
The project looked at how to best integrate MET forecast uncertainty information into the decision-making process for flow management positions (FMP), an operational position that monitors the level of traffic in airspace sectors and coordinates flow measures when an excess of demand over capacity is detected. The research team developed a probabilistic methodology to forecast traffic congestion and traffic complexity to be used in conjunction with the tools currently employed by FMPs. An innovative feature of the FMP-Met tool is its ability to provide the FMP with an intuitive and interpretable probabilistic assessment of the impact of convective weather on the traffic, up to 8 hours in advance, to allow better-informed decision making. The next steps in this research should lead to the development of a prototype tool, in close collaboration with FMPs, implementing the FMP-Met concept.
Of course, predicting the weather is an important part of network forecasting and performance. The ISOBAR project prototyped a storm forecaster tailored to air traffic management and a user- driven mitigation plan that takes into account flow constraints and network effects. The set of weather management boosters includes a neural network that integrates convective prediction into a structured airspace map, together with a set of AI modules, such as AI-based hotspot detection and adaptive mitigation measures, to support decision-making by the human operator. The project also developed an operational and technical roadmap for the integration of ancillaries into the Network Manager platform by defining interfaces, and functional and performance requirements.
“The project results are expected to improve convective weather forecasts, anticipate the detection of demand - capacity imbalances in the network and provide optimal mitigation solutions. This means better situational awareness of the operating environment, which at end of the day, means better decision-making and performance all around,” says Marta Sánchez Cidoncha, ISOBAR project coordinator.
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If you like to know more about these SESAR projects, visit:
FMP-MET: https://fmp-met.com ISOBAR: https://isobar-project.eu/