Page 11 - ATC Special Bulletin Series - Meteorology 2022-01

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Objective Skygreen is based on the three possible scenarios of our long-term air traffic forecast EUROCONTROL Aviation Outlook 2050 (EAO 2050) which predicts 13.8 million flights across the European Network by 2030 and 16 million flights by 2050 (both baseline scenario) and estimates the impact of industry driven and regulatory measures. Counterintuitively, the high scenario with the most traffic is most efficient to reach net zero emissions by 2050 at lower cost, as higher revenues will drive increased investment in new technology.
Our estimates show that the cumulative extra cost of these decarbonisation measures to the aviation industry over the period 2022-2030 will amount to €62 billion, made up of: €29 billion in tax costs on kerosene (applied to intra-EU flights), €23 billion in extra ETS costs (applied to intra-EEA flights + flights from UK & Switzerland), €10 billion in extra fuel mix costs (based on a 5% SAF / 95% kerosene mix in accordance with the ReFuelEU Aviation proposal). The extra cost to the airline industry in 2030 alone is estimated at €14 billion. However, improvements led by the aviation industry (operational measures and modernising airline fleets) are capable of bringing the extra cumulative costs over 2022-2030 significantly down from €62 billion to €29 billion.
The vision is ambitious and challenging but achievable, and essential if we want to reduce our climate change impact and work towards decarbonizing our industry. Moreover, the Climate Change Risks for European Aviation report shows that climate change will increasingly impact aviation, threating airlines, airports, passengers and the smooth functioning of the air traffic network. Addressing these impacts now, by taking both strong and swift action to reduce emissions and embedding effective adaptation measures in current and future planning, will allow us to build together a more climate-resilient and sustainable European aviation network. The more we can reduce emissions today the less we will have to adapt to tomorrow.
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If you are interested in our work on climate change and the European Aviation Climate Change Adaptation Working Group, please contact Rachel Burbidge: rachel.burbidge@eurocontrol.int
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